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"caseload": 54413.185645506885, "caseload_sb": 0.0, "person_days": 1686808.7550107134, "spend_gbp": 92344513.97393702, "spend_sb_gbp": 0.0 }, { "month_index": 43, "period": "2030-01", "arrivals": 0, "intake": 0.0, "other_intake": 3679.225, "exits": 3814.3643137500326, "caseload": 54278.04633175685, "caseload_sb": 0.0, "person_days": 1682619.4362844625, "spend_gbp": 92115169.30133654, "spend_sb_gbp": 0.0 }, { "month_index": 44, "period": "2030-02", "arrivals": 0, "intake": 0.0, "other_intake": 3679.225, "exits": 3804.891047856155, "caseload": 54152.3802839007, "caseload_sb": 0.0, "person_days": 1516266.6479492194, "spend_gbp": 83008169.26864482, "spend_sb_gbp": 0.0 }, { "month_index": 45, "period": "2030-03", "arrivals": 0, "intake": 0.0, "other_intake": 3679.225, "exits": 3796.0818579014385, "caseload": 54035.52342599926, "caseload_sb": 0.0, "person_days": 1675101.226205977, "spend_gbp": 91703584.13876884, "spend_sb_gbp": 0.0 }, { "month_index": 46, "period": "2030-04", "arrivals": 0, "intake": 0.0, "other_intake": 3679.225, "exits": 3787.890192162548, "caseload": 53926.858233836705, "caseload_sb": 0.0, "person_days": 1617805.7470151011, "spend_gbp": 88566937.40091643, "spend_sb_gbp": 0.0 }, { "month_index": 47, "period": "2030-05", "arrivals": 0, "intake": 0.0, "other_intake": 3679.225, "exits": 3780.272762191953, "caseload": 53825.81047164475, "caseload_sb": 0.0, "person_days": 1668600.124620987, "spend_gbp": 91347680.68238841, "spend_sb_gbp": 0.0 }, { "month_index": 48, "period": "2030-06", "arrivals": 0, "intake": 0.0, "other_intake": 3679.225, "exits": 3773.1893140622965, "caseload": 53731.84615758245, "caseload_sb": 0.0, "person_days": 1611955.3847274734, "spend_gbp": 88246658.73244402, "spend_sb_gbp": 0.0 }, { "month_index": 49, "period": "2030-07", "arrivals": 0, "intake": 0.0, "other_intake": 3679.225, "exits": 3766.602415646529, "caseload": 53644.46874193592, "caseload_sb": 0.0, "person_days": 1662978.5310000135, "spend_gbp": 91039925.97744885, "spend_sb_gbp": 0.0 }, { "month_index": 50, "period": "2030-08", "arrivals": 0, "intake": 0.0, "other_intake": 3679.225, "exits": 3760.4772588097076, "caseload": 53563.216483126205, "caseload_sb": 0.0, "person_days": 1660459.7109769124, "spend_gbp": 90902032.92340218, "spend_sb_gbp": 0.0 }, { "month_index": 51, "period": "2030-09", "arrivals": 0, "intake": 0.0, "other_intake": 3679.225, "exits": 3754.7814754671467, "caseload": 53487.660007659055, "caseload_sb": 0.0, "person_days": 1604629.8002297715, "spend_gbp": 87845618.87655888, "spend_sb_gbp": 0.0 }, { "month_index": 52, "period": "2030-10", "arrivals": 0, "intake": 0.0, "other_intake": 3679.225, "exits": 3749.4849665368997, "caseload": 53417.40004112216, "caseload_sb": 0.0, "person_days": 1655939.4012747868, "spend_gbp": 90654568.11672835, "spend_sb_gbp": 0.0 }, { "month_index": 53, "period": "2030-11", "arrivals": 0, "intake": 0.0, "other_intake": 3679.225, "exits": 3744.559742882663, "caseload": 53352.06529823949, "caseload_sb": 0.0, "person_days": 1600561.9589471847, "spend_gbp": 87622924.49875954, "spend_sb_gbp": 0.0 }, { "month_index": 54, "period": "2030-12", "arrivals": 0, "intake": 0.0, "other_intake": 3679.225, "exits": 3739.979777406588, "caseload": 53291.3105208329, "caseload_sb": 0.0, "person_days": 1652030.62614582, "spend_gbp": 90440581.83141553, "spend_sb_gbp": 0.0 }, { "month_index": 55, "period": "2031-01", "arrivals": 0, "intake": 0.0, "other_intake": 3679.225, "exits": 3735.720867510386, "caseload": 53234.814653322515, "caseload_sb": 0.0, "person_days": 1650279.254252998, "spend_gbp": 90344702.80200581, "spend_sb_gbp": 0.0 }, { "month_index": 56, "period": "2031-02", "arrivals": 0, "intake": 0.0, "other_intake": 3679.225, "exits": 3731.7605071979083, "caseload": 53182.27914612461, "caseload_sb": 0.0, "person_days": 1489103.816091489, "spend_gbp": 81521137.3223102, "spend_sb_gbp": 0.0 }, { "month_index": 57, "period": "2031-03", "arrivals": 0, "intake": 0.0, "other_intake": 3679.225, "exits": 3728.0777681433347, "caseload": 53133.426377981275, "caseload_sb": 0.0, "person_days": 1647136.2177174196, "spend_gbp": 90172636.95256191, "spend_sb_gbp": 0.0 }, { "month_index": 58, "period": "2031-04", "arrivals": 0, "intake": 0.0, "other_intake": 3679.225, "exits": 3724.653189096487, "caseload": 53087.99818888478, "caseload_sb": 0.0, "person_days": 1592639.9456665434, "spend_gbp": 87189233.0895095, "spend_sb_gbp": 0.0 }, { "month_index": 59, "period": "2031-05", "arrivals": 0, "intake": 0.0, "other_intake": 3679.225, "exits": 3721.468673040823, "caseload": 53045.75451584396, "caseload_sb": 0.0, "person_days": 1644418.3899911628, "spend_gbp": 90023849.20190522, "spend_sb_gbp": 0.0 }, { "month_index": 60, "period": "2031-06", "arrivals": 0, "intake": 0.0, "other_intake": 3679.225, "exits": 3718.5073915606613, "caseload": 53006.4721242833, "caseload_sb": 0.0, "person_days": 1590194.1637284989, "spend_gbp": 87055338.51273306, "spend_sb_gbp": 0.0 } ] }, "backtest": { "origin": "2025-06-30", "baseline": 106075, "actual_arrivals_12m": 33374, "observed_at_horizon": 93293, "observed_date": "2026-06-30", "fitted_hazard": 0.0701, "modelled_at_fit": 93266, "cases": { "lower": { "modelled": 64416, "error": -28877, "error_pct": -31.0 }, "central": { "modelled": 93266, "error": -27, "error_pct": -0.0 }, "higher": { "modelled": 129298, "error": 36005, "error_pct": 38.6 } } }, "parameters": { "origin_note": "The scenario origin is the latest date at which the supported caseload is observed (quarterly 'as at' date). Months between the origin and the ledger's data-current-to date use actual arrivals from the ledger; later months use the seasonal assumption.", "baseline_caseload": { "label": "observed", "value_source": "series.context.asy_support_total latest", "source_ref": "Home Office, Asylum summary tables YE June 2026, Asy_09b, as at 30 June 2026", "source_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables" }, "hotel_share": { "label": "observed", "value_source": "series.context.asy_support_hotels latest / asy_support_total latest", "source_ref": "Asy_00a 'Of which accommodated in hotels' as at 30 June 2026 (16,021) over total supported (93,293)" }, "unit_cost_hotel_per_night": { "label": "official_estimate", "value": 134.0, "vintage": "2023-24", "source_ref": "NAO, Investigation into asylum accommodation, March 2024, paragraph 2.5: hotel cost expected to fall from 148 to 134 pounds per person per night including VAT; range 127 to 148 between April 2023 and January 2024", "source_url": "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/investigation-into-asylum-accommodation.pdf", "sensitivity": [ 127.0, 148.0 ] }, "unit_cost_dispersal_per_night": { "label": "derived", "method": "(direct accommodation spend 2024-25 minus hotel person-days times hotel unit cost) divided by non-hotel supported person-days, using the as-at December 2024 caseload (112,187 supported, 38,054 in hotels) as the year's level", "inputs": { "accommodation_spend_gbp": 2700000000, "supported_dec_2024": 112187, "hotels_dec_2024": 38054, "hotel_unit_cost": 134.0 }, "source_ref": "NAO December 2025 Figure 5 note 2; Asylum summary tables Asy_00a; NAO March 2024 for the hotel rate", "caveat": "An implied average across dispersal, initial accommodation and large sites, at a 2023-24 hotel rate. Not a contract price." }, "cash_support_per_day": { "label": "official_estimate", "value": 7.03, "vintage": "December 2025", "source_ref": "NAO December 2025 paragraph 1.4: 49.18 pounds a week self-catered (7.03 a day); 9.95 a week catered", "source_url": "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/an-analysis-of-the-asylum-system.pdf" }, "share_claiming_asylum": { "label": "observed", "value": 0.984, "source_ref": "IER_02d: of 40,595 small-boat arrivals in 2025, 32,023 claimed asylum only and 7,929 claimed asylum with an NRM referral (98.4%)", "source_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables" }, "share_entering_support": { "label": "assumption", "cases": { "lower": 0.7, "central": 0.85, "higher": 0.95 }, "source_ref": "Not published. Support is available to claimants who would otherwise be destitute (NAO paragraph 1.4); the take-up among small-boat claimants specifically is not a published statistic. Shown as a range and labelled an assumption.", "what_would_settle_it": "A Home Office statistic or FOI response giving the share of small-boat asylum claimants in receipt of section 95/98 support within three months of arrival." }, "monthly_exit_hazard": { "label": "derived", "method": "Calibrated: the monthly hazard at which the central case, started from the observed supported caseload on 30 June 2025 (106,075) and fed the arrivals the ledger actually recorded plus the other-route claims level, lands exactly on the observed caseload on 30 June 2026 (93,293). The lower-cost and higher-cost cases move the fitted hazard by the spread below. Because the central hazard is fitted, the central back-test closes by construction; the back-test is a consistency check of the other cases and of the share assumption, not an independent validation.", "spread_around_fit": 0.03, "source_ref": "Asylum summary tables YE June 2026, Asy_00a and Asy_09b; this site's ledger", "caveat": "Case labels follow their effect on cost: 'higher' means slower exits. A single hazard is applied to everyone in support regardless of route or stage; decisions, grants, refusals, returns and move-on periods are not modelled separately because the published tables do not give support exits by reason." }, "arrivals_level": { "label": "derived", "method": "Trailing 12 months of detected arrivals from the ledger at the origin, scaled by case: lower 0.75, central 1.0, higher 1.25. Monthly shape is each calendar month's share of the trailing 36 months of arrivals (historical seasonality continuation, not a prediction).", "source_ref": "This site's ledger of Home Office SB_01 daily data" }, "inflation_annual": { "label": "unavailable", "value": 0.0, "note": "Nominal, at stated vintages. Unit costs are 2023-24 (hotel) and 2024-25 (derived dispersal); no uplift applied, so spending is understated in later years to the extent prices rise." }, "other_route_claims_per_year": { "label": "observed", "value": 51942, "source_ref": "Asylum summary tables YE June 2026: 85,891 people claimed asylum in the year ending June 2026 (Asy_00a), of whom 33,949 had arrived by small boat (Asy_01c); the remaining 51,942 claimed after arriving by other routes. Held flat at this level, divided by 12, and multiplied by the same share-entering-support as small-boat claimants.", "source_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables", "caveat": "The supported caseload is fed by claims from every route. Modelling small-boat intake alone cannot reproduce it, which the first back-test showed (errors of 22 to 73 per cent); this flow is what closes the gap." } }, "expenditure_records": [ { "id": 1, "department": "Home Office", "programme": "Asylum accommodation and support (excluding UASC)", "period_label": "2024-25", "period_basis": "financial_year", "amount_gbp": 3400000000, "figure_basis": "paid", "label": "official_estimate", "coverage": "Accommodation, cash support and dispersal grants for people with asylum claims; excludes unaccompanied asylum-seeking children.", "contains": [ 2, 3, 4 ], "contained_by": [ 5, 6 ], "source_url": "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/an-analysis-of-the-asylum-system.pdf", "source_ref": "NAO, An analysis of the asylum system, December 2025, Figure 5 note 2 (actual costs, rounded)" }, { "id": 2, "department": "Home Office", "programme": "Direct spending on asylum accommodation", "period_label": "2024-25", "period_basis": "financial_year", "amount_gbp": 2700000000, "figure_basis": "paid", "label": "official_estimate", "coverage": "Payments to accommodation providers (hotels, dispersal, initial and large sites).", "contains": [], "contained_by": [ 1, 5, 6 ], "source_url": "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/an-analysis-of-the-asylum-system.pdf", "source_ref": "NAO, December 2025, Figure 5 note 2" }, { "id": 3, "department": "Home Office", "programme": "Cash support to people seeking asylum", "period_label": "2024-25", "period_basis": "financial_year", "amount_gbp": 220000000, "figure_basis": "paid", "label": "official_estimate", "coverage": "Weekly allowances (section 95, section 4).", "contains": [], "contained_by": [ 1, 5, 6 ], "source_url": "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/an-analysis-of-the-asylum-system.pdf", "source_ref": "NAO, December 2025, Figure 5 note 2" }, { "id": 4, "department": "Home Office", "programme": "Grants to local authorities for dispersal accommodation", "period_label": "2024-25", "period_basis": "financial_year", "amount_gbp": 247000000, "figure_basis": "paid", "label": "official_estimate", "coverage": "Grant funding to councils hosting dispersal accommodation.", "contains": [], "contained_by": [ 1, 5, 6 ], "source_url": "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/an-analysis-of-the-asylum-system.pdf", "source_ref": "NAO, December 2025, Figure 5 note 2" }, { "id": 5, "department": "Home Office", "programme": "Asylum support expenditure (all)", "period_label": "2024-25", "period_basis": "financial_year", "amount_gbp": 4000000000, "figure_basis": "paid", "label": "official_estimate", "coverage": "Asylum support including UASC grants (around 636 million pounds) and accommodation transformation.", "contains": [ 1 ], "contained_by": [ 6 ], "source_url": "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/an-analysis-of-the-asylum-system.pdf", "source_ref": "NAO, December 2025, summary (around 4.0 billion pounds on asylum support)" }, { "id": 6, "department": "Home Office and Ministry of Justice", "programme": "Total asylum-system spending", "period_label": "2024-25", "period_basis": "financial_year", "amount_gbp": 4900000000, "figure_basis": "estimated", "label": "official_estimate", "coverage": "NAO estimate from actual costs: support, casework (around 367 million), Irregular Migration Intake Unit (nearly 75 million), MoJ tribunals and legal aid. The NAO says it does not fully capture local-authority costs.", "contains": [ 5 ], "contained_by": [], "source_url": "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/an-analysis-of-the-asylum-system.pdf", "source_ref": "NAO, December 2025, paragraph 1.14 and Figure 5" }, { "id": 7, "department": "All departments (FCDO reporting)", "programme": "ODA in-donor refugee costs", "period_label": "2025", "period_basis": "calendar_year", "amount_gbp": 2395000000, "figure_basis": "accrued", "label": "official_estimate", "coverage": "OECD DAC accounting classification of eligible first-12-month costs of supporting refugees and asylum seekers in the UK, across departments. Provisional; final figures due autumn 2026. Overlaps the Home Office figures above on a different period and basis.", "contains": [], "contained_by": [], "overlaps": [ 1, 5, 6 ], "source_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/statistics-on-international-development-provisional-uk-official-development-assistance-spend-2025/statistics-on-international-development-provisional-uk-official-development-assistance-spend-2025", "source_ref": "FCDO, Statistics on International Development: provisional UK ODA spend 2025, 9 April 2026 (2,395 million pounds; 2,827 million in 2024)" }, { "id": 8, "department": "All departments (FCDO reporting)", "programme": "ODA in-donor refugee costs", "period_label": "2024", "period_basis": "calendar_year", "amount_gbp": 2827000000, "figure_basis": "accrued", "label": "official_estimate", "coverage": "As record 7, prior year, final.", "contains": [], "contained_by": [], "overlaps": [], "source_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/statistics-on-international-development-provisional-uk-official-development-assistance-spend-2025/statistics-on-international-development-provisional-uk-official-development-assistance-spend-2025", "source_ref": "FCDO, 9 April 2026" } ], "funding_flows": [ { "appropriation": "Parliamentary Supply Estimate, Home Office", "department": "Home Office", "programme": "Asylum accommodation and support", "recipient": "Accommodation providers (asylum accommodation and support contracts)", "category": "Accommodation", "period_label": "2024-25", "amount_gbp": 2700000000, "figure_basis": "paid", "source_url": "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/an-analysis-of-the-asylum-system.pdf", "notes": "NAO Figure 5 note 2. Provider-level split not stated in the document; not invented." }, { "appropriation": "Parliamentary Supply Estimate, Home Office", "department": "Home Office", "programme": "Asylum support", "recipient": "People seeking asylum (section 95 / section 4 allowances)", "category": "Cash support", "period_label": "2024-25", "amount_gbp": 220000000, "figure_basis": "paid", "source_url": "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/an-analysis-of-the-asylum-system.pdf", "notes": "Weekly rate as at December 2025: 49.18 pounds self-catered, 9.95 catered (NAO paragraph 1.4)." }, { "appropriation": "Parliamentary Supply Estimate, Home Office", "department": "Home Office", "programme": "Dispersal accommodation grants", "recipient": "Local authorities", "category": "Grants to local authorities", "period_label": "2024-25", "amount_gbp": 247000000, "figure_basis": "paid", "source_url": "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/an-analysis-of-the-asylum-system.pdf", "notes": "NAO Figure 5 note 2. Per-council amounts are a separate (council-level) document; not apportioned here." }, { "appropriation": "Parliamentary Supply Estimate, Home Office", "department": "Home Office", "programme": "Unaccompanied asylum-seeking children", "recipient": "Local authorities", "category": "Grants and incentive payments", "period_label": "2024-25", "amount_gbp": 636000000, "figure_basis": "paid", "source_url": "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/an-analysis-of-the-asylum-system.pdf", "notes": "NAO Figure 5 note 3. Outside the 3.4 billion accommodation-and-support figure; inside the 4.0 billion." }, { "appropriation": "ODA budget (cross-government, reported by FCDO)", "department": "Home Office and others", "programme": "In-donor refugee costs", "recipient": "Not a payment: an accounting classification of eligible spend already in departmental budgets", "category": "Classification", "period_label": "2025", "amount_gbp": 2395000000, "figure_basis": "accrued", "source_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/statistics-on-international-development-provisional-uk-official-development-assistance-spend-2025/statistics-on-international-development-provisional-uk-official-development-assistance-spend-2025", "notes": "Provisional. Never added to the Home Office rows." } ] }