{
 "_about": "Hand-curated from cited documents, never by the daily job. Every record names its basis. Labels follow the brief's display rules: observed | official_estimate | derived | assumption | unavailable. Figures verified in the source text on 5 October 2026.",
 "expenditure_records": [
  {
   "id": 1,
   "department": "Home Office",
   "programme": "Asylum accommodation and support (excluding UASC)",
   "period_label": "2024-25",
   "period_basis": "financial_year",
   "amount_gbp": 3400000000,
   "figure_basis": "paid",
   "label": "official_estimate",
   "coverage": "Accommodation, cash support and dispersal grants for people with asylum claims; excludes unaccompanied asylum-seeking children.",
   "contains": [
    2,
    3,
    4
   ],
   "contained_by": [
    5,
    6
   ],
   "source_url": "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/an-analysis-of-the-asylum-system.pdf",
   "source_ref": "NAO, An analysis of the asylum system, December 2025, Figure 5 note 2 (actual costs, rounded)"
  },
  {
   "id": 2,
   "department": "Home Office",
   "programme": "Direct spending on asylum accommodation",
   "period_label": "2024-25",
   "period_basis": "financial_year",
   "amount_gbp": 2700000000,
   "figure_basis": "paid",
   "label": "official_estimate",
   "coverage": "Payments to accommodation providers (hotels, dispersal, initial and large sites).",
   "contains": [],
   "contained_by": [
    1,
    5,
    6
   ],
   "source_url": "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/an-analysis-of-the-asylum-system.pdf",
   "source_ref": "NAO, December 2025, Figure 5 note 2"
  },
  {
   "id": 3,
   "department": "Home Office",
   "programme": "Cash support to people seeking asylum",
   "period_label": "2024-25",
   "period_basis": "financial_year",
   "amount_gbp": 220000000,
   "figure_basis": "paid",
   "label": "official_estimate",
   "coverage": "Weekly allowances (section 95, section 4).",
   "contains": [],
   "contained_by": [
    1,
    5,
    6
   ],
   "source_url": "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/an-analysis-of-the-asylum-system.pdf",
   "source_ref": "NAO, December 2025, Figure 5 note 2"
  },
  {
   "id": 4,
   "department": "Home Office",
   "programme": "Grants to local authorities for dispersal accommodation",
   "period_label": "2024-25",
   "period_basis": "financial_year",
   "amount_gbp": 247000000,
   "figure_basis": "paid",
   "label": "official_estimate",
   "coverage": "Grant funding to councils hosting dispersal accommodation.",
   "contains": [],
   "contained_by": [
    1,
    5,
    6
   ],
   "source_url": "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/an-analysis-of-the-asylum-system.pdf",
   "source_ref": "NAO, December 2025, Figure 5 note 2"
  },
  {
   "id": 5,
   "department": "Home Office",
   "programme": "Asylum support expenditure (all)",
   "period_label": "2024-25",
   "period_basis": "financial_year",
   "amount_gbp": 4000000000,
   "figure_basis": "paid",
   "label": "official_estimate",
   "coverage": "Asylum support including UASC grants (around 636 million pounds) and accommodation transformation.",
   "contains": [
    1
   ],
   "contained_by": [
    6
   ],
   "source_url": "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/an-analysis-of-the-asylum-system.pdf",
   "source_ref": "NAO, December 2025, summary (around 4.0 billion pounds on asylum support)"
  },
  {
   "id": 6,
   "department": "Home Office and Ministry of Justice",
   "programme": "Total asylum-system spending",
   "period_label": "2024-25",
   "period_basis": "financial_year",
   "amount_gbp": 4900000000,
   "figure_basis": "estimated",
   "label": "official_estimate",
   "coverage": "NAO estimate from actual costs: support, casework (around 367 million), Irregular Migration Intake Unit (nearly 75 million), MoJ tribunals and legal aid. The NAO says it does not fully capture local-authority costs.",
   "contains": [
    5
   ],
   "contained_by": [],
   "source_url": "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/an-analysis-of-the-asylum-system.pdf",
   "source_ref": "NAO, December 2025, paragraph 1.14 and Figure 5"
  },
  {
   "id": 7,
   "department": "All departments (FCDO reporting)",
   "programme": "ODA in-donor refugee costs",
   "period_label": "2025",
   "period_basis": "calendar_year",
   "amount_gbp": 2395000000,
   "figure_basis": "accrued",
   "label": "official_estimate",
   "coverage": "OECD DAC accounting classification of eligible first-12-month costs of supporting refugees and asylum seekers in the UK, across departments. Provisional; final figures due autumn 2026. Overlaps the Home Office figures above on a different period and basis.",
   "contains": [],
   "contained_by": [],
   "overlaps": [
    1,
    5,
    6
   ],
   "source_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/statistics-on-international-development-provisional-uk-official-development-assistance-spend-2025/statistics-on-international-development-provisional-uk-official-development-assistance-spend-2025",
   "source_ref": "FCDO, Statistics on International Development: provisional UK ODA spend 2025, 9 April 2026 (2,395 million pounds; 2,827 million in 2024)"
  },
  {
   "id": 8,
   "department": "All departments (FCDO reporting)",
   "programme": "ODA in-donor refugee costs",
   "period_label": "2024",
   "period_basis": "calendar_year",
   "amount_gbp": 2827000000,
   "figure_basis": "accrued",
   "label": "official_estimate",
   "coverage": "As record 7, prior year, final.",
   "contains": [],
   "contained_by": [],
   "overlaps": [],
   "source_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/statistics-on-international-development-provisional-uk-official-development-assistance-spend-2025/statistics-on-international-development-provisional-uk-official-development-assistance-spend-2025",
   "source_ref": "FCDO, 9 April 2026"
  }
 ],
 "funding_flows": [
  {
   "appropriation": "Parliamentary Supply Estimate, Home Office",
   "department": "Home Office",
   "programme": "Asylum accommodation and support",
   "recipient": "Accommodation providers (asylum accommodation and support contracts)",
   "category": "Accommodation",
   "period_label": "2024-25",
   "amount_gbp": 2700000000,
   "figure_basis": "paid",
   "source_url": "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/an-analysis-of-the-asylum-system.pdf",
   "notes": "NAO Figure 5 note 2. Provider-level split not stated in the document; not invented."
  },
  {
   "appropriation": "Parliamentary Supply Estimate, Home Office",
   "department": "Home Office",
   "programme": "Asylum support",
   "recipient": "People seeking asylum (section 95 / section 4 allowances)",
   "category": "Cash support",
   "period_label": "2024-25",
   "amount_gbp": 220000000,
   "figure_basis": "paid",
   "source_url": "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/an-analysis-of-the-asylum-system.pdf",
   "notes": "Weekly rate as at December 2025: 49.18 pounds self-catered, 9.95 catered (NAO paragraph 1.4)."
  },
  {
   "appropriation": "Parliamentary Supply Estimate, Home Office",
   "department": "Home Office",
   "programme": "Dispersal accommodation grants",
   "recipient": "Local authorities",
   "category": "Grants to local authorities",
   "period_label": "2024-25",
   "amount_gbp": 247000000,
   "figure_basis": "paid",
   "source_url": "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/an-analysis-of-the-asylum-system.pdf",
   "notes": "NAO Figure 5 note 2. Per-council amounts are a separate (council-level) document; not apportioned here."
  },
  {
   "appropriation": "Parliamentary Supply Estimate, Home Office",
   "department": "Home Office",
   "programme": "Unaccompanied asylum-seeking children",
   "recipient": "Local authorities",
   "category": "Grants and incentive payments",
   "period_label": "2024-25",
   "amount_gbp": 636000000,
   "figure_basis": "paid",
   "source_url": "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/an-analysis-of-the-asylum-system.pdf",
   "notes": "NAO Figure 5 note 3. Outside the 3.4 billion accommodation-and-support figure; inside the 4.0 billion."
  },
  {
   "appropriation": "ODA budget (cross-government, reported by FCDO)",
   "department": "Home Office and others",
   "programme": "In-donor refugee costs",
   "recipient": "Not a payment: an accounting classification of eligible spend already in departmental budgets",
   "category": "Classification",
   "period_label": "2025",
   "amount_gbp": 2395000000,
   "figure_basis": "accrued",
   "source_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/statistics-on-international-development-provisional-uk-official-development-assistance-spend-2025/statistics-on-international-development-provisional-uk-official-development-assistance-spend-2025",
   "notes": "Provisional. Never added to the Home Office rows."
  }
 ],
 "parameters": {
  "origin_note": "The scenario origin is the latest date at which the supported caseload is observed (quarterly 'as at' date). Months between the origin and the ledger's data-current-to date use actual arrivals from the ledger; later months use the seasonal assumption.",
  "baseline_caseload": {
   "label": "observed",
   "value_source": "series.context.asy_support_total latest",
   "source_ref": "Home Office, Asylum summary tables YE June 2026, Asy_09b, as at 30 June 2026",
   "source_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables"
  },
  "hotel_share": {
   "label": "observed",
   "value_source": "series.context.asy_support_hotels latest / asy_support_total latest",
   "source_ref": "Asy_00a 'Of which accommodated in hotels' as at 30 June 2026 (16,021) over total supported (93,293)"
  },
  "unit_cost_hotel_per_night": {
   "label": "official_estimate",
   "value": 134.0,
   "vintage": "2023-24",
   "source_ref": "NAO, Investigation into asylum accommodation, March 2024, paragraph 2.5: hotel cost expected to fall from 148 to 134 pounds per person per night including VAT; range 127 to 148 between April 2023 and January 2024",
   "source_url": "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/investigation-into-asylum-accommodation.pdf",
   "sensitivity": [
    127.0,
    148.0
   ]
  },
  "unit_cost_dispersal_per_night": {
   "label": "derived",
   "method": "(direct accommodation spend 2024-25 minus hotel person-days times hotel unit cost) divided by non-hotel supported person-days, using the as-at December 2024 caseload (112,187 supported, 38,054 in hotels) as the year's level",
   "inputs": {
    "accommodation_spend_gbp": 2700000000,
    "supported_dec_2024": 112187,
    "hotels_dec_2024": 38054,
    "hotel_unit_cost": 134.0
   },
   "source_ref": "NAO December 2025 Figure 5 note 2; Asylum summary tables Asy_00a; NAO March 2024 for the hotel rate",
   "caveat": "An implied average across dispersal, initial accommodation and large sites, at a 2023-24 hotel rate. Not a contract price."
  },
  "cash_support_per_day": {
   "label": "official_estimate",
   "value": 7.03,
   "vintage": "December 2025",
   "source_ref": "NAO December 2025 paragraph 1.4: 49.18 pounds a week self-catered (7.03 a day); 9.95 a week catered",
   "source_url": "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/an-analysis-of-the-asylum-system.pdf"
  },
  "share_claiming_asylum": {
   "label": "observed",
   "value": 0.984,
   "source_ref": "IER_02d: of 40,595 small-boat arrivals in 2025, 32,023 claimed asylum only and 7,929 claimed asylum with an NRM referral (98.4%)",
   "source_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables"
  },
  "share_entering_support": {
   "label": "assumption",
   "cases": {
    "lower": 0.7,
    "central": 0.85,
    "higher": 0.95
   },
   "source_ref": "Not published. Support is available to claimants who would otherwise be destitute (NAO paragraph 1.4); the take-up among small-boat claimants specifically is not a published statistic. Shown as a range and labelled an assumption.",
   "what_would_settle_it": "A Home Office statistic or FOI response giving the share of small-boat asylum claimants in receipt of section 95/98 support within three months of arrival."
  },
  "monthly_exit_hazard": {
   "label": "derived",
   "method": "Calibrated: the monthly hazard at which the central case, started from the observed supported caseload on 30 June 2025 (106,075) and fed the arrivals the ledger actually recorded plus the other-route claims level, lands exactly on the observed caseload on 30 June 2026 (93,293). The lower-cost and higher-cost cases move the fitted hazard by the spread below. Because the central hazard is fitted, the central back-test closes by construction; the back-test is a consistency check of the other cases and of the share assumption, not an independent validation.",
   "spread_around_fit": 0.03,
   "source_ref": "Asylum summary tables YE June 2026, Asy_00a and Asy_09b; this site's ledger",
   "caveat": "Case labels follow their effect on cost: 'higher' means slower exits. A single hazard is applied to everyone in support regardless of route or stage; decisions, grants, refusals, returns and move-on periods are not modelled separately because the published tables do not give support exits by reason."
  },
  "arrivals_level": {
   "label": "derived",
   "method": "Trailing 12 months of detected arrivals from the ledger at the origin, scaled by case: lower 0.75, central 1.0, higher 1.25. Monthly shape is each calendar month's share of the trailing 36 months of arrivals (historical seasonality continuation, not a prediction).",
   "source_ref": "This site's ledger of Home Office SB_01 daily data"
  },
  "inflation_annual": {
   "label": "unavailable",
   "value": 0.0,
   "note": "Nominal, at stated vintages. Unit costs are 2023-24 (hotel) and 2024-25 (derived dispersal); no uplift applied, so spending is understated in later years to the extent prices rise."
  },
  "other_route_claims_per_year": {
   "label": "observed",
   "value": 51942,
   "source_ref": "Asylum summary tables YE June 2026: 85,891 people claimed asylum in the year ending June 2026 (Asy_00a), of whom 33,949 had arrived by small boat (Asy_01c); the remaining 51,942 claimed after arriving by other routes. Held flat at this level, divided by 12, and multiplied by the same share-entering-support as small-boat claimants.",
   "source_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables",
   "caveat": "The supported caseload is fed by claims from every route. Modelling small-boat intake alone cannot reproduce it, which the first back-test showed (errors of 22 to 73 per cent); this flow is what closes the gap."
  }
 }
}