National context: the polls, the lead and the seat arithmetic
Outside the council beat. This site reports local government from primary documents. This page is national context, kept apart from that work and labelled as such: it is a ledger of what pollsters have published, and arithmetic applied to the 2024 result. It does not tell anyone how to vote.
Poll of polls as of 14 October 2026: Labour leads Reform UK by 6.2 points (8 pollsters, latest poll from each within 21 days).
Poll-of-polls vote share, highest first (these are opinion-poll figures, not an assessment by this site; the bracket is the number of the 8 polls that report the party separately, since a figure a pollster does not publish is excluded, not treated as zero): Labour 28.2% (8 of 8), Reform UK 22.0% (8 of 8), Conservative 21.4% (8 of 8), Liberal Democrat 9.8% (8 of 8), Green 9.4% (8 of 8), Restore Britain 4.4% (5 of 8), SNP 2.4% (8 of 8), Plaid Cymru 1.0% (7 of 8). These figures measure stated voting intention, not party quality and not predicted seats.
Who is in the lead
Each point is the mean of the latest poll from each pollster with fieldwork in the preceding 21 days, recomputed weekly. One poll per pollster, so no house dominates. Polls labelled MRP are excluded from the average and listed separately.
The polls behind the current figure
- Trajectory Partnership, fieldwork to 14 October 2026, n=1,473: published table
- YouGov, fieldwork to 12 October 2026, n=2,393: published table
- More in Common, fieldwork to 12 October 2026, n=2,101: published table
- Freshwater Strategy, fieldwork to 11 October 2026, n=1,235: published table
- Opinium, fieldwork to 9 October 2026, n=2,050: published table
- Survation, fieldwork to 5 October 2026, n=1,669: published table
- Lord Ashcroft Polls, fieldwork to 28 September 2026, n=5,039: published table
- BMG Research, fieldwork to 24 September 2026, n=1,515: published table
The poll ledger
| Fieldwork | Pollster (client) | n | LAB | CON | REF | LD | GRN | SNP | PC | RB | Table |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-14 Oct 2026 | Trajectory Partnership | 1473 | 30.0 | 21.0 | 22.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | table |
| 11-12 Oct 2026 | YouGov (The Times/Sky News) | 2393 | 24.0 | 23.0 | 21.0 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | table |
| 9-12 Oct 2026 | More in Common | 2101 | 28.0 | 24.0 | 21.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | table |
| 9-11 Oct 2026 | Freshwater Strategy (City AM) | 1235 | 29.0 | 22.0 | 23.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | table | ||
| 7-9 Oct 2026 | Opinium (The Observer) | 2050 | 29.0 | 20.0 | 23.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | table | |
| 4-5 Oct 2026 | YouGov (The Times/Sky News) | 2312 | 27.0 | 20.0 | 22.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | table |
| 3-5 Oct 2026 | More in Common | 2088 | 29.0 | 21.0 | 24.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | table |
| 2-5 Oct 2026 | Survation | 1669 | 30.0 | 19.0 | 24.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | table |
| 30-2 Oct 2026 | Opinium (The Observer) | 1552 | 30.0 | 17.0 | 25.0 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | table | |
| 25-29 Sep 2026 | More in Common | 2041 | 27.0 | 22.0 | 21.0 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | table |
| 27-28 Sep 2026 | YouGov (The Times/Sky News) | 2310 | 24.0 | 19.0 | 25.0 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | table |
| 24-28 Sep 2026 | Lord Ashcroft Polls | 5039 | 28.0 | 22.0 | 19.0 | 9.0 | 14.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | table | |
| 23-25 Sep 2026 | Opinium (The Observer) | 2050 | 28.0 | 17.0 | 24.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | table | |
| 23-24 Sep 2026 | BMG Research (The i Paper) | 1515 | 28.0 | 20.0 | 23.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | table |
| 22-23 Sep 2026 | Survation | 1224 | 27.0 | 21.0 | 24.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | table |
| 20-21 Sep 2026 | YouGov (The Times/Sky News) | 2286 | 23.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 12.0 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | table |
| 18-21 Sep 2026 | More in Common | 2113 | 26.0 | 23.0 | 22.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | table |
| 16-18 Sep 2026 | Opinium (The Observer) | 2050 | 27.0 | 18.0 | 24.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | table | |
| 23-18 Sep 2026 | YouGov (The Times/Sky News) MRP | 16758 | 24.0 | 21.0 | 22.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | table |
| 7-16 Sep 2026 | Trajectory Partnership | 1460 | 30.0 | 21.0 | 22.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | table |
| 11-15 Sep 2026 | More in Common | 2038 | 25.0 | 22.0 | 23.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | table |
| 10-15 Sep 2026 | Ipsos | 1033 | 27.0 | 21.0 | 23.0 | 8.0 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | table |
| 13-14 Sep 2026 | YouGov (The Times/Sky News) | 2149 | 23.0 | 20.0 | 23.0 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | table |
| 11-14 Sep 2026 | Deltapoll | 2056 | 29.0 | 19.0 | 25.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | table | |
| 9-11 Sep 2026 | Opinium (The Observer) | 2050 | 27.0 | 19.0 | 25.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | table |
The full ledger (217 polls since 5 January 2025) is in polls.csv. Poll figures are facts reported with attribution to the pollster's published table, as the press does; no pollster's series is republished as a dataset of its own. The index of polls is read from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0, attributed). 2024 results are from Democracy Club's open results data, each seat linked to its declaration source. Index: Wikipedia, Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election (CC BY-SA 4.0), revision 1380626784.
Seat arithmetic scenario
Two textbook methods, both shown because they disagree. Uniform swing adds each party's national change since 2024 to its share in every seat. Proportional swing scales each party's 2024 share by its national ratio. Neither knows anything about candidates, local campaigns, tactical behaviour or boundary effects, and both treat a party that did not stand in a seat as starting from zero. The 2024 baseline is the declared result in each constituency.
| Party | 2024 share | Poll of polls | Swing | Seats, uniform swing | Seats, proportional swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 34.6% | 28.2% | -6.4 | 349 | 304 |
| Conservative | 24.4% | 21.4% | -3.0 | 141 | 115 |
| Reform UK | 14.7% | 22.0% | +7.3 | 35 | 111 |
| Liberal Democrat | 12.6% | 9.8% | -2.8 | 72 | 65 |
| Green | 6.9% | 9.4% | +2.5 | 4 | 6 |
| SNP | 2.6% | 2.4% | -0.2 | 12 | 11 |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.7% | 1.0% | +0.3 | 4 | 6 |
| Restore Britain | 0.0% | 4.4% | +4.4 | 0 | 0 |
| Others and independents | 3.6% | 15 | 14 |
Seats changing hands against 2024: 70 under uniform swing, 143 under proportional swing.
Look up a constituency
Type a constituency name. The lookup needs JavaScript; without it the tables above and the projection file carry the same figures.
The closest seats
| Seat | 2024 winner | Projected first | Projected second | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maidstone and Malling | Conservative | Conservative 27.5% | Reform UK 27.4% | 0.1 |
| Barnsley South | Labour | Reform UK 40.5% | Labour 40.3% | 0.2 |
| Bridlington and The Wolds | Conservative | Conservative 31.6% | Reform UK 31.4% | 0.2 |
| Dartford | Labour | Conservative 29.0% | Reform UK 28.7% | 0.2 |
| North East Hertfordshire | Labour | Labour 28.5% | Conservative 28.3% | 0.2 |
| Bexleyheath and Crayford | Labour | Reform UK 30.0% | Labour 29.7% | 0.3 |
| Faversham and Mid Kent | Conservative | Conservative 28.8% | Reform UK 28.5% | 0.3 |
| Makerfield | Labour | Reform UK 39.1% | Labour 38.8% | 0.3 |
| North East Derbyshire | Labour | Labour 31.9% | Conservative 31.6% | 0.3 |
| Walsall and Bloxwich | Labour | Labour 27.2% | Reform UK 26.9% | 0.3 |
| Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North | Labour | Others 26.6% | Reform UK 26.2% | 0.4 |
| North Durham | Labour | Labour 33.4% | Reform UK 33.0% | 0.4 |
| Wyre Forest | Conservative | Conservative 29.1% | Reform UK 28.8% | 0.4 |
| Bradford South | Labour | Reform UK 29.8% | Labour 29.4% | 0.5 |
| Isle of Wight East | Conservative | Reform UK 28.2% | Conservative 27.6% | 0.5 |
| Mid Derbyshire | Labour | Labour 30.0% | Conservative 29.6% | 0.5 |
| Mid and South Pembrokeshire | Labour | Labour 29.0% | Conservative 28.4% | 0.5 |
| Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket | Labour | Conservative 27.1% | Labour 26.5% | 0.6 |
| Clwyd North | Labour | Conservative 29.7% | Labour 29.1% | 0.6 |
| Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes | Labour | Reform UK 36.1% | Labour 35.4% | 0.6 |
| Kingston upon Hull East | Labour | Reform UK 37.9% | Labour 37.3% | 0.6 |
| Reading West and Mid Berkshire | Labour | Conservative 29.1% | Labour 28.5% | 0.6 |
| Burton and Uttoxeter | Labour | Labour 29.1% | Reform UK 28.4% | 0.7 |
| Dumfries and Galloway | Conservative | SNP 27.3% | Conservative 26.6% | 0.7 |
| Southend West and Leigh | Labour | Labour 29.2% | Conservative 28.5% | 0.7 |
| St Austell and Newquay | Labour | Labour 27.7% | Reform UK 27.0% | 0.7 |
| Gordon and Buchan | Conservative | SNP 30.7% | Conservative 29.9% | 0.8 |
| South East Cornwall | Labour | Reform UK 26.2% | Labour 25.3% | 0.9 |
| Bognor Regis and Littlehampton | Conservative | Conservative 29.8% | Reform UK 28.8% | 1.0 |
| Hyndburn | Labour | Reform UK 28.0% | Labour 27.1% | 1.0 |
| Rochester and Strood | Labour | Reform UK 30.7% | Labour 29.7% | 1.0 |
| Ely and East Cambridgeshire | Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat 29.9% | Conservative 28.8% | 1.1 |
| Rother Valley | Labour | Conservative 33.1% | Labour 32.1% | 1.1 |
| Rotherham | Labour | Labour 38.7% | Reform UK 37.6% | 1.1 |
| Nuneaton | Labour | Labour 30.5% | Reform UK 29.3% | 1.2 |
| North East Hampshire | Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat 35.4% | Conservative 34.0% | 1.3 |
| Spen Valley | Labour | Labour 32.7% | Reform UK 31.4% | 1.3 |
| Stoke-on-Trent South | Labour | Conservative 30.2% | Reform UK 28.9% | 1.3 |
| Suffolk Coastal | Labour | Conservative 26.6% | Labour 25.2% | 1.3 |
| Godalming and Ash | Conservative | Conservative 39.6% | Liberal Democrat 38.2% | 1.4 |
Sources and method
- 2024 results: Democracy Club results export for the 4 July 2024 general election (CC BY 4.0), one row per candidate, each seat carrying its declaration source. GB vote shares computed from the 632 GB seats. seats-2024.json.
- Polls: each row's figures are the pollster's published headline figures; the link is to the pollster's own table. Where the index carries no link the row says so.
- Poll of polls: mean of the latest VI poll per pollster within 21 days of the most recent poll. No weighting by sample size or house effect. A party's figure is the mean across the polls that report it separately; a missing figure is excluded, not treated as zero. Smaller parties are reported separately by fewer pollsters, so their averages rest on fewer polls, and the coverage is shown beside each figure.
- Projection: projection.json holds every seat under both methods.
- Revisions: 1 poll row(s) have changed in the index since first recorded; the ledger keeps both versions.
Corrections to anything on this page are made in place and logged in the corrections log.